The 2025 NL MVP race has been a hot topic over the last month or so. There are some who believe that the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani ought to receive his 4th MVP award (which would be his third in a row) and some believe that the Philadelphia Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber deserves to win his first.
The argument for Schwarber rests on the influence he has had on his team’s success and current division lead in the NL East. The Phillies as I am writing this article have a better record than the Dodgers do, boasting an 89-60 record (2nd in MLB) to the Dodgers’ 82-65 (7th in MLB). For the Phillies, such a record is a gross overachievement from what was expected of them back when the season started in Spring. ESPN projected them to have an 89-73 record come season’s end but still with 13 games left to play they have already reached that win mark and are on track to launch that prediction out of the park. This overachievement is in large part due to Kyle Schwarber’s continued and consistent excellence. He, at this point, has hit an earth-shattering 51 home runs, driven in 126 runs, and scored 103 runs whilst posting a 150 OPS+ meaning he is 50% better than the league average hitter. Those home run and RBI numbers are also NL leading statistics. In no uncertain terms, Schwarber is having an incredibly valuable season which was accentuated when he hit 4 home runs on August 28th against the Atlanta Braves. The Phillies have only been able to dominate the division and greatly exceed their expectations because Schwarber has been ‘the guy’ for them this year.
So, for Schwarber, his case places great emphasis on the ‘valuable’ part of Most Valuable Player – simply put, without him, the Phillies would likely be nowhere. They have missed Bryce Harper and J.T Realmuto for over 25 games and have seen a sharp decline in the play of former All-Stars Aaron Nola and Alec Bohm. Schwarber has played in all 149 of their games thus far and has been their most productive hitter. He may not play the field much anymore, but he is their offensive engine. If he wins MVP this year, it will be because the voters deemed him just that valuable to one of the best teams in all of MLB.
But like the title of this article says, the NL MVP race is not fair. In some other years, Schwarber’s 2025 season may have been enough to win the MVP – really if Shohei Ohtani didn’t exist he would likely win the award. But in a world in which Ohtani exists, the MVP race will never be fair. There is a very compelling argument that Ohtani as a hitter alone deserves the MVP award over Schwarber. He has just three fewer home runs at 48, he has a much higher OPS+ at 176, a .280 average to Schwarber’s .244, and he leads all of MLB in runs scored (132) and total bases (336). All things considered, Ohtani’s offensive season has been considerably better than Schwarber’s and that is nothing to do with a lack of brilliance from Schwarber and all to do with the alien that is Shohei Ohtani. He is simply one of the best hitters baseball has ever seen. However, his team has not benefitted from his insane offense like Philadelphia has with Schwarber. The Dodgers have struggled to live up to their expectations whilst having arguably the best roster in all of MLB. For context, ESPN projected them to end the season with a 102-60 record – a far cry from the 82-65 they’re sitting at now.
So, Ohtani’s play may not have had the impact on his team that Schwarber’s has but firstly, some of Ohtani’s Dodger teammates have been uncharacteristically poor this year (Mookie Betts being the prime suspect) and some like Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow have barely played. His numbers speak for themselves and could even be interpreted as the reason that the defending World Series champions haven’t fallen even further. After all, the Dodgers are only 6 games back from the Phillies and the numbers are very much in Ohtani’s favour.
However, Ohtani’s offensive greatness is not why the NL MVP race is unfair. We have seen many sluggers over the years who have not had a stranglehold over the award. The race is now unfair because Ohtani also pitches. And as soon as he took the mound this year on June 17th at Dodger Stadium against the San Diego Padres, the gig was up and the MVP was essentially his. Ohtani has had some great pitching outings since he returned to two-way play such as his July 12th appearance against the San Francisco Giants in which he gave up no runs, just one hit, and struck out 4 batters in 3 innings or his 5 inning, 9 strikeout, 1 run game against the Cincinnati Reds on August 28th. He has also had some poor outings like his August 21st start against the Colorado Rockies where he gave up 5 runs in 4 innings and on August 14th when he gave up 4 runs in 4.1 innings against his former employer, the Los Angeles Angels.
But the unfairness doesn’t stem from how good Ohtani is on the mound, it is just the fact that he is on the mound. Shohei adds value to his team in a way that no other player in the league does. No one can ever rival the value that Ohtani brings to his team if he hits and pitches. In all of his starts this season, Ohtani has also hit, and he has remained the clear second-best hitter in MLB behind Aaron Judge. It isn’t the case that you get one and lose the other, he is (when healthy) a top-5/10 pitcher in MLB and a top-2 hitter in MLB. If he simply gets in the batters box and steps on the mound as 75% of what we know he can be – he is the most valuable player in baseball. It is as simple as that.
There is no two-way award because no one ever thought to make one. Its why we have the CY Young Award for pitchers and the Silver Slugger for hitters but not one for players that do both. Because those players don’t exist anymore… until Ohtani showed up at least. In any season that Shohei hits at an All-Star level and pitches at even just a league average level, which is grossly underselling both components of his game, he should win the MVP award. Yes, it may sound ridiculous to say that a player deserves the MVP award just for doing what is commonplace for them but that is why it is unfair. Since no one can rival what Ohtani does, in terms of providing value, he ought to win MVP every single year. Will he win every year? Probably not. We have seen most clearly in the NBA that voters become fatigued after players win multiple awards so we have reason to suspect that voters will be praying for more bad outings from Ohtani so they can finally vote for someone else.
But when you look at it objectively, just like we know LeBron and Jordan probably should have won MVP almost every year they played – Ohtani should win MVP every year. And that is why the NL MVP race is rightfully unfair.
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