Derby games are different, I’m a firm believer of that. A team might be a heavy favourite, be performing far better throughout the season or even in past meetings. But it almost feels like when the rivals line up in the tunnel, the strategic advantages are stripped and they just go out and play football.
Now obviously I’m being slightly facetious with that take, but a milder version of it still stands. Derby games don’t follow all of the same rules as normal games when you’re making predictions. Teams who should stand no chance sometimes end up getting results, outplaying the ‘favourites’. So, when people think about what is going to happen this weekend when Manchester United visit Anfield to take on their arch nemesis Liverpool, we should take that into account.
I’ll keep this post more personal and less stat heavy due to my personal affections in this fixture (given that I’m a Liverpool fan myself) so please know that I am prepared for some of these takes to be proven very wrong come tomorrow night.
United have failed to win a league match at Anfield in their last 9 attempts, they have won just 1 of the last 14 league matches regardless of the venue; and their current form doesn’t help their chances of changing that. On paper, this should be a walk in the park for the hosts, and while I do predict that Liverpool will leave on Sunday evening with 3 points, it will be a harder task than it first seems.
While Liverpool are on the back-end of three straight losses, they are still 2nd in the Premier League and have had the international break to forget about that little slide and regroup a bit. United, on the other hand, probably played their best game of the season in a 2-0 win against Sunderland; so whilst the break was good for Liverpool, it was ill-timed for United.
Regardless, the last time saw Liverpool play, they were outclassed by Chelsea and the last time we saw Man United play, they were very impressive. That is something that we ought to take some stock in.
Maybe Slot has done some severe introspection and made some tactical changes for this game (and the rest of the season too); maybe United will return to their very mediocre ways and the win at Sunderland was just a fluke. But those are maybes – what we know is that Utd seemed to be on the rise while Liverpool were simultaneously on the decline.
But let’s talk tactics for a second – and let’s dumb it really far down since both teams may have made some changes over the break which mean we see different systemic styles than we saw before the break. On paper, Liverpool’s 4-3-3 is a superior formation to Utd’s 3-4-3. It offers more balance with an extra body in central midfield, an extra defender in possession to help build up, and an easier system for players to acclimatise to.
But Utd’s 3-4-3, in theory, has much greater upside. If it works, that Amorim system is capable of totally unleashing his players and optimising them. It is why his Sporting side were so good when he was there and were able to beat Manchester City 4-1 in the Champions League last year. But with these high upside systems, as high as the ceiling may go, the floor also extends in the opposite direction.
At the moment, Utd haven’t found ways to optimise the system or the players within it on a consistent basis. That is why some games you think Amad Diallo is the second coming of Lionel Messi and others you’re confused on whether he should even be playing. The same with Bruno Fernandes. For every incredible touch, there’s a positional mistake since he’s playing as an 8 sometimes, a 10 sometimes, or just running free with apparently no responsibilities. Since each game can be so drastically different, Utd are scary to everyone. Scary to opponents as they might just figure it out one day and play extremely well (like against Arsenal in their first game of the season). And scary for their own fans because any given game could be their worst performance of the season.
Regardless, Utd do scare me. Bruno Fernandes is one of the 3-5 best midfielders in the entire league, Matheus Cuhna and Bryan Mbuemo are really really dangerous, and on any given day Leny Yoro might showcase his elite talent.
With Liverpool, the expectations are less volatile. The system and squad allow that to be the case. The floor for the 4-3-3 is far higher than the 3-4-3 and the Liverpool players are far more consistent than Utd’s. However, the ceiling for Liverpool this season has been uncharacteristically low. There have been no standout performances, no games in which they dominated, no real consistent threat at the top end of the pitch, and a lot of defensive questions being asked.
As a Liverpool fan, it has been tough to watch for sure. Will Florian Wirtz finally be who I was so excited to see back in June? Will Mo Salah have me shouting good or bad things at the TV this time? Will Hugo Ekitike bring me as much joy as his first few appearances did? This is the problem with Liverpool right now, you simply don’t know if or when things are going to all work out – and that is the trouble with making multiple big transfers. If you’d like to hear my thoughts on why the new signings aren’t performing as well as people would like then check out my last post here.
Essentially, the underlying elements and issues of both teams mean that the 5-point and 8 place difference between them indicates that there is a larger gap than there really might be.
When you look at the expected points, expected goals, and expected goals against, the stats are eerily similar for both teams. Man United are expected to have 11.83 points to Liverpool’s 11.27. They have generated 13.97 expected goals to Liverpool’s 12.48 and have allowed 10.37 xG against to Liverpool’s 9.68. So, if you take stock in what these baseline stats say, Utd have actually been the better team this season.
Now that is clearly not true to any well-trained eye, but it acts as good reason to believe that this game isn’t as simple to call as it may seem. Add the fact that its a derby game and tensions are likely to be high, we really don’t know what versions of Man Utd and Liverpool we will see tomorrow – and that is extremely exciting (for the football fan in me).
Just to give my totally unbiased two cents – I predict a 3-1 win for Liverpool and a return to the kind of form we thought we’d see from them at the beginning of the season (let’s hope that isn’t just wishful thinking).
Watching Liverpool is a wild experience